What a difference a week makes!
Last time we commented on the big news about the world’s most famous real estate guy potentially using the tax laws to reduce his federal income taxes to virtually zero.
Since then, as you probably know, the news has been dominated by President Trump’s illness, hospitalization, treatment, and return to the White House.
The undercard of the Presidential virus is the stimulus threesome of Trump, Pelosi and Powell. The first TPP didn’t work out. Will this one?
And while all this is politically titillating, we’re not into kinky politics. Our interest is purely economic and investment oriented.
So let’s consider what’s happening and why it matters to real estate investors … then we’ll close out by taking a peek into the future.
First, the New York Times “shocks” the world … at least the world who doesn’t understand how the tax law works … by breaking the “news” President Trump may have paid virtually no income tax for many years.
It may divide people politically … as if they weren’t already … but it just might unite people around real estate investing.
So we think having Trump’s tax secrets exposed is GREAT for real estate in general and syndicators in particular.
That’s because many highly taxed, but poorly advised affluent people will likely awaken to the benefits of real estate investing.
Some will want to invest directly … but we’re guessing most would prefer to invest through a syndicator because it’s easier and safer.
But when the salacious story of Trump’s tax secrets was buried by coverage of his illness, it seemed national attention shifted away from real estate.
However, with Trump’s apparent recovery, perhaps the tax story will be resurrected by Trump’s adversaries.
Time will tell. In any case, we think Trump’s taxes will have a positive impact on attracting more investment into real estate.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell just came out publicly to call for more FISCAL stimulus … a.k.a., government spending …
More Stimulus Now Or Economy Will Sink, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Warns As White House Talks Drag
– International Business Times, 10/6/20
“ ‘Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy, and holding back wage growth,’ Powell said …”
As you may know, when the Fed gooses things … dropping interest rates, printing money, buying bonds … it’s called MONETARY stimulus.
It seems Chairman Powell feels like the Fed has done its fair share of stimulating … so now it’s time for Trump and Pelosi to spice things up.
Whether it’s tactics, posturing or principles … both are digging in, apparently refusing to budge… leaving everyone wondering what’s really going to happen.
Of course, all this stimulus uncertainty creates volatility in paper asset markets … including stocks, bonds and currencies.
So what does all his have to do with real estate investors?
Besides the obvious impact on interest rates, lending, jobs (and thus rents), inflation (affecting tenants’ payment ability) … and the value of the dollars you’re collecting or the stability of the financial system you store them in … not much. 😉
But it’s not all doom and gloom. We’re already seeing some markets and niches boom, as people and money move around to adjust to the new world.
Our point today is there’s a good chance of a potentially big wave of interest and capital heading into real estate from three major fronts.
First, as we’ve discussed, are over-taxed people who are about to wake up bigly to the powerful tax advantages of real estate investing.
Next is the still large and powerful baby-boomer demographic which is facing anemic interest rates for as far as the eye can see.
Boomers need higher and safer risk-adjusted income than they can get with CDs, bonds, annuities, or dividend paying stocks. Real estate can deliver for them.
The third potential influx of capital into U.S. real estate could well come from foreigners seeking safe-haven assets in a very stormy world.
Right now, the world is VERY chaotic and uncertain. Investors need protection from inflation, deflation, currency collapse, systemic collapse, societal collapse.
We’re not saying all or any of those things will happen in the United States to a shocking degree … but they could.
They’re certainly happening in other parts of the world.
Meanwhile, for all its challenges and flaws, United States real estate remains among the most desirable safe-haven assets in the world.
Sure, U.S. investors get weirded out comparing yesterday to today. But what about wealthy folks in places like Venezuela or China?
USA properties probably look pretty darn good from their perspective.
Wealthy foreigners might get nervous about U.S. paper assets like stocks, bonds, and dollars, which are volatile and easily tracked and seized.
But REAL assets in a jurisdiction with very stable private property laws are alluring for people in places where their world doesn’t work that way.
Think about all the wealthy people in Hong Kong.
Now we’re not saying everyone and their foreign cousins are going to start pouring into real estate tomorrow.
For many foreigners, the challenge is getting their money from there to here … and doing it in such a way that’s private, secure and manageable.
But as is often the case with many challenges in the modern world … technology may provide the answer.
Imagine being able to own a digital asset backed up by a real asset …
Now you have something portable, private, secure, relatively liquid … all representing ownership in something real.
Gold seems like the logical choice, and it’s not bad. But gold isn’t an investment … it’s just an alternative form of cash. It’s money.
(If that makes your head tilt, we discuss it on our Making Sense of Silver series)
But a digital asset backed by income producing real estate would check some important boxes.
To no surprise, clever entrepreneurs are already figuring this out and are rolling out solutions. We think it has the potential to be VERY big, so we’ll be talking more about in the very near future.
Meanwhile, whether you’re an accomplished real estate investor or just getting started, you’ve got lots of opportunities headed your way.
The economy might recover and boom … lifting all boats. Just be sure you’re IN one.
The economy might crash, temporarily crushing asset prices, and providing proactive investors an opportunity to collect quality assets at bargain prices.
In both cases, capital from less stable assets and places will likely be attracted to the stability and high risk-adjusted returns of the right real estate in the right markets.
Your mission is to be ready, willing and able to recognize and act on attractive opportunities when they appear. Because in ANY market, good deals always go to the aware, prepared, brave and bold.
Until next time … good investing!